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Thursday, August 12, 2010

Bacon for Breakfast again

In May of this year, the debt problems of Europe were the front page story of every newspaper you could think of. The PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Germany, Spain) piling debt seemed to be an insurmountable problem looming over Europe, until much of the European Union compromised on a bailout to solve the problems that were on the verge of breaking out of control. Throughout the start of August headlines have avoided the Eurozones debt difficulties, but is it too early to writeoff those problems just yet? Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads are one of the best ways of measuring the likelihood of a European country's default. When these spreads rise the likelihood of default increases, and vice versa. From July to August CDS spreads for the PIIGS countries had been in decline, but since the start of August CDS spreads have quietly started to climb back up again. Investors beware the PIIGS are back.

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